Severe Weather Risk for Thursday

posted Mar 25, 2015, 1:12 PM by nicholas.todd@vawg.cap.gov
SPC Text:

SPC AC 251701

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
   COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC
   ON THURSDAY.  A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR FROM EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND
   EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S.
   WILL MOVE SEWD ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE
   OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE SOUTHEAST OF
   THE LOW ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN VA. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN A POCKET OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY MAY HAVE A
   POTENTIAL TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE DUE TO THE INSTABILITY COMBINED
   WITH 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35 TO 45 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC
   COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
   MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS.

   ...TX COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND LOWER MS
   VALLEY. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F JUST AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD BE IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE TX COAST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THERE. DUE TO THE
   TIMING OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST AND RELATIVELY WEAK
   INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/25/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z


   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2007Z (4:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC Severe Weather Risk
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